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Government revenue down, but deficit not as bad
11 May 2012
Treasury has released the final set of fiscal accounts before the release of the Budget in about a fortnight. The media release, however, is slightly misleading, as it does not always clearly distinguish when it is referring to Core Crown versus Total Crown figures. So while the government deficit is still bad, the actual figures are perhaps not as bad as one might interpret from a scan of Treasury’s media release.
For the nine months to the end of March 2012, Core Crown revenue was 4 percent below forecast, but expenses were also reined in at 3.3 percent below forecast. As a »»
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08 May 2012
March 2012 trade figures indicate a fall in the value of exports compared to year-earlier levels. Exports were valued at $4.2bn in March, down from $4.6bn in March 2011. Flagship exports such as dairy, crude oil and fruits all recorded lower export revenue this March.
Exports of milk powder, butter, and cheese were down to $1.1bn, a drop of 14.5% compared to the same month last »»
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08 May 2012
Now that the numbers are in for the first quarter of 2012, it can be seen that there has been a steady improvement in the number of residential building consents issued. In the last quarter of 2011 3,760 residential building consents were issued. In the first quarter of 2012, this number has crept up to 3,860. However, any enthusiasm in regards to an up-turn in the industry needs »»
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03 May 2012
Treasury regularly publishes data on the monthly tax take – the tax “outturn” data. These publications are usually released about six weeks after the end of the month. It is some of the earliest data available on how the economy is tracking. The data are reported for both “receipts” (cash that has been received by the collecting agency) and »»
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03 May 2012
The latest statistics point to an on-going recovery for retail sales as consumer confidence grows. In March, after adjusting for seasonal fluctuations, the value of electronic card transactions recorded by retail industries rose (by 0.3 percent). Core retail industries lead the way and with greater growth overall (by 0.5 percent). Total electronic card transactions, which also include travel, health and wholesaling transactions, were down »»
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26 Apr 2012
Alan Bollard believes it is prudent to hold the OCR at 2.5 percent, where it has remained since March 2011.
He considers that inflation has settled near the middle of the Bank’s target range expectations ‘have fallen’. In the march 2012 quarter the CPI was up 0.5 percent and, on the year, the CPI was up 1.6 percent.
The Reserve Bank suggests that the domestic »»
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26 Apr 2012
Overseas visitor numbers are continuing to rise, with 239,900 visitors to New Zealand in the month of March 2012. This is an increase of 24,400 or 11.3 percent on the previous March month. The annual number of visitors arriving in New Zealand for the year to March 2012 increased by 4.4 percent, to 2.62 million.
While the increasing number of total overseas visitors is good news »»
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26 Apr 2012
New Zealanders permanently migrating to Australia has hit a new record high according to the March release of international travel and migration data from Statistics New Zealand.
In the year to March 2012, a record high of 53,200 people left New Zealand for Australia, looking for greener pastures. This is a 30 percent increase in annual departures to Australia. This large increase »»
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17 Apr 2012
Business NZ’s monthly Performance of Services Index (PSI) declined in March 2012. The seasonally-adjusted index fell 1.9 points from February to 53.9 in March 2012. Despite this fall, the PSI index is up 2.3 points on year-earlier levels.
The PSI is a monthly survey of businesses in the service sector. It provides an indication of the levels of activity in the sector, where a PSI »»
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17 Apr 2012
According to Statistics New Zealand’s latest food price index, overall food prices in March were down 1 percent compared to February. In addition, prices were down for all five broad categories: fruit and vegetables, meat, poultry and fish, grocery food, restaurant and ready-to-eats, and non-alcoholic beverages.
The most significant decline came from fruit and vegetables, with »»
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30 Mar 2012
The Buller district was the best performing local authority based on the BERL regional rankings for 2011. This year’s report also ranks regions and cities, with Auckland the best performing region, and Tauranga the best performing city.
The BERL regional rankings compare the performance of individual local authorities, regions and cities across four short term, four medium term, and one long term indicator of economic »»
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26 Mar 2012
Media Release
Embargoed until 2.00pm Monday 26 March 2012
Pasture renewal essential to support future growth in New Zealand’s economy
The farm-gate value of dairy, sheep and beef products grew by 58% from $10.2 billion in the 2006/2007 season, to $16.3 billion in the 2010/2011 season – but greater investment in pasture renewal »»
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16 Mar 2012
As a reward for all our hard work and efforts over the last few months, the BERL team attended a talk by Thomas Friedman at the Town Hall, who was speaking as the final act of Writers and Readers Week.
If you don’t know who Thomas Friedman is, he is a journalist, author, and columnist who focuses on the world economy and, more recently, the US position in the world economy (which was the focus of his talk –and an associated book »»
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08 Mar 2012
On 5 March 2012, Statistics New Zealand released their international migration data for January 2012.
This data revealed that overseas visitor numbers are currently on the rise, with just over 2.6 million arriving in New Zealand in the year to January 2012. This is a 2.7 percent increase compared with the year to January 2011. The increasing number of overseas visitors is very good news for »»
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08 Mar 2012
The latest financial statements for Treasury for the seven months to January 2012 show a big hole in the fiscal accounts.
The response from Labour’s David Parker, is that this highlights that the Government has a structural deficit problem, not just a short term issue related to the business cycle. That is, the Government would still face a deficit under its current policy settings even if the economy were out of the recession and »»
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07 Mar 2012
January is usually a slow month in terms of residential building consents.
This is reflected in the monthly total for January 2012 of 1,098 residential building consents issued, and the three monthly running total of 3,609 consents. However, if we look at the number of consents issued over the last three months and compare this figure with the same period last year, things look a »»
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29 Feb 2012
Philanthropy is the act of giving financial resources to a cause that is intended to improve general human well-being, and where the giver expects no direct reciprocation or financial gain in return.
BERL has just released research for Philanthropy New Zealand that estimates New Zealanders gave $2.67 billion to charitable and community causes in 2011. This is more than double the estimate »»
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05 Mar 2012
Last week, AFFCO locked out 762 workers indefinitely after talks between AFFCO and the NZ Meat Workers Union broke down. The 762 workers are said to represent 70 percent of the meat workers across Moerewa, Horotiu, Imlay, Wairoa and Manawatu plants.
This article aims to provide context in terms of what this means for total employment in the meat processing industry and the districts that are »»
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27 Feb 2012
The New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association Survey of Business Conditions indicate that domestic manufacturing sales decreased by less than half a percent in December 2011 compared to December 2010, while manufacturing export sales increased by 15.4%. Overall, total sales increased by 5.3% year-on-year, and net confidence among the businesses surveyed was »»
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27 Feb 2012
The Capital Goods Price Index rose 0.4 percent in the December 2011 quarter, taking the annual increase to 1.1 percent. This slight upward trend follows a very subdued period where the index remains at the same level as the June 2009 quarter.
Five of the six asset groups rose in the December 2011 quarter, led by residential buildings, civil construction and plant, machinery and »»
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20 Feb 2012
Pricy Pumpkin Soup.
Overall, food prices in January 2012 didn’t change from December 2011. For the year however, food prices were up by one percent.
Food subgroups were down, apart from fruit and vegetable prices, which rose by 3.6 percent on the month. This is in contrast to price changes over the year, where fruit and vegetables is the only subgroup where prices »»
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08 Feb 2012
Following on from research completed by BERL at the end of 2011, and in line with the review of industry training the government is currently undertaking, Mark Oldershaw the CEO of Industry Training Federation makes a strong case for ongoing support of the role of ITO's in skills leadership.
You can read the article »»
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31 Dec 2011
BERL is very pleased to work with Kiwibank in supporting their business customers. We have teamed up with New Zealand’s only locally-owned bank with branches nationwide in order to produce an economic commentary newsletter, Business Matters, headed by our very own Chief Economist, Dr Ganesh Nana.
To receive the commentary monthly through email, people can register on the Kiwibank website »»
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14 Dec 2011
Media Release
EMBARGO 10.30am Wednesday 14 December 2011
BERL research confirms value of industry training
Modelling exercises undertaken by BERL indicate that if there was a reduction in industry training funding, there would be a significant negative impact on the economy.
Using the BERL model of the New Zealand economy, a loss of all public funding of industry training results »»
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10 Oct 2011
The latest turmoil on global currency and stock markets centres on the future of the European Union. It is no exaggeration to say that there are growing concerns as to the long-term sustainability of the Euro as the common currency for 17 of the 27 member states of the European Union.
Despite the arguably strong economic case for a common trading area with similar tax, policy and »»
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Recent BERL Projects
Since setting up a professional consulting and research operation in 1970, BERL has undertaken a variety of projects for a range of clients. Please feel free to look at the summaries of a selection of our work from the last few years. If you have any queries on these or other projects we have undertaken please contact us.
Philanthropy New Zealand - Giving New Zealand Philanthropic Funding 2011
The Industry Training Federation - The Economic Costs and Benefits of Industry Training
The Value of Pasture to the New Zealand Economy
Economic impact of Air New Zealand service Rarotonga – Los Angeles
Economic impact of seasonal Sydney-Rarotonga route
Framework for economic impact assessment of earthquake disruption to Wellington Metropolitan lifelines
Case study: Reducing lifeline disruption losses – Whakatikei Dam
Economic Benefits of a Nelson City Performing Arts Center and Conference Centre
Pacific Wave Conference Delegate Document
Wellington on a Plate Economic Impact Analysis
In Depth Country Research - China
Costs of harmful alcohol and other drug use
Maori Television and its contribution to the New Zealand Economy
Projections for a skilled and productive New Zealand
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