Commentary

BERL’s recent study into the Costs of Harmful Alcohol and Other Drug Use has prompted some criticism from some quarters. In particular, economists Crampton and Burgess have written a critique of our report. BERL soundly rejects the criticism contained in the Crampton and Burgess’ critique and stand by the validity of our work. Further, the gross misrepresentation of Treasury Deputy Secretary Dr Bushnell’s comments unfairly »»

BERL accepts Treasury apology It has been reported that Treasury has made some critical comments about our report into the Costs of Harmful Alcohol and Other Drugs Use. BERL Managing Director Kel Sanderson says that he is pleased to accept an apology from the Treasury with respect to these criticisms. The letter received from Treasury Deputy Secretary, Dr Peter Bushnell, on Friday 03 July states: “My comments were in response to second »»

I noted before the Budget announcements that we needed a statement attuned to the needs of the New Zealand economy, and not those of the credit rating agencies. And, as I always told ECON101 students in their first class, economics is about people not about money. So, what did we get from the Budget about people, about money, about the NZ economy, and about the credit rating agencies? What we got was debt. 34 times. We did get exports six »»

“Inflation targeting has failed the needs of the New Zealand economy”, was the response from BERL Senior Economist Dr Ganesh Nana to today’s Monetary Policy Statement. “That the RB, in their forecast, is prepared to accept four consecutive years of negative or nil employment growth is clear evidence that New Zealanders are paying a very high price indeed for the inflation control and targeting focus of economic »»

Economics is about choices. Choices are driven by, in part, ambition. So, what are the ambitions of today’s world, or of today’s New Zealand? I raise this question because I am, at times, disheartened by climate change deliberations that focus on the horrendous future facing tomorrow’s generations. How is this predominantly negative focus going to instil the ambition to meet this monster »»

Statistics New Zealand has only recently completed new estimates of national productivity for the economy. The new figures refer to what Statistics calls the “measured sector” of the economy. This definition excludes some industry sectors and local and central government and is said to be more representative of the commercial sector. The new estimates run from 1987/88 to 2004/05 and it has been stated that they will be extended »»

Is economics a heartless topic? And, are economists really a heartless bunch? Or is that just a characteristic of business and commerce? As a naive, young, economics student I was often confronted with the thought that commerce students were only after $s and had no heart. Many of those confronting me were sceptical arts students. They would invariably profess their allegiance to cerebral matters over those of the »»

The first step required is an immediate cut in interest rates. But this needs to go hand in hand with the establishment of a new economic order. An order that puts at the front and centre of all economic discussions - diagnoses, prognoses and remedies - the plight of exports and exporting businesses. For it is not only actions that count, but expectations, perceptions and attitudes are also required to change. In essence, New »»

When three guys got together in November 1957 to prepare the prototype edition of BERL Forecasts, I can only imagine the issues they faced in launching a new business. And I would also imagine that the New Zealand economy they were assessing then must have been so different from the economy of the present day. I say “imagine”, because I wasn’t around then. The key mechanism in 1957 to control the economic situation »»

I’m all in favour of new thinking. Yes, no ifs, no buts, if there’s something we all need is to indulge in some new thinking. Whether it is testing the upper limits of human endurance or examining the ability of the mind to absorb complex stimuli (e.g. how many more reality TV programmes can one really cope with), we should never dismiss new thought without at least subjecting it to impassive scrutiny. Yes, new »»

A Buy Kiwi Made program is currently under development – supplementing the long-standing Buy NZ campaign. What, if any, is the economic rationale behind such programs or policy initiatives? A quick diversion, if you’ll permit me, before I return to this question. Competition in sporting arenas shares a similar ideal to competition in the business market place in the desirability for a level playing field. Underlying »»

In many business decisions there are conflicts between short-term objectives and longer-term goals. Life is probably no different. The clichés are innumerable. No doubt you’ve heard a version of the much maligned “have bread today and you’ll be able to enjoy jam tomorrow.” Or, “it won’t happen overnight, but it will happen”. And then there’s one from dad (and, no doubt »»

So, what will Te Tari Tatou be measuring in the New Zealand of the 2030s? As an economist I’d suggest two critical constraints facing the New Zealand economy over the coming quarter century – people and energy. Thus, I would signal two key productivity or efficiency measures – GDP per hours worked and GDP per GWh of energy generated. But we measure these already … so is there anything more? The people of »»

This year sees the world’s leaders travel the, now well-trodden, path south to New Zealand. They will be attending 2029 General Assembly session in the United Nations’ purpose-built southern headquarters situated in shadows of Aoraki. This small, distant, isolated South Pacific nation’s meteoric rise onto the world’s stage has been well reported. The origins of the rise of this nation of 8 million, however, »»

Rising employment, falling unemployment, rising wages, rising productivity to name but a few of the latest indicators. The vibes from July’s Local Government Annual Conference were just as positive with many areas, districts and regions reporting examples of initiatives, jobs and growth. This conference was indeed a welcome change from the usual “there’s a skill shortage … help” chorus that emanates from »»

The past ten years have been undoubtedly busy - and varied. We’ve experienced (at least, by my count): four different central government administrations; three Prime Ministers; three Ministers of Finance; two Reserve Bank Governors; three Secretaries of the Treasury; a transition to MMP; two ‘dry-year’ electricity shortages; numerous natural phenomena (drought, flood etc); an exchange rate fluctuating between a peak of 70 »»

Planes, trains, boats and … what next? Transport … oh, what a sorry mess. Transport modes, services and infrastructure - how important is this industry? Just one of the many limbs that are part and parcel of a developed economy to be governed by the conditions of supply and demand and the operation of private enterprise and the profit motive? Or, a vital function ferrying blood through veins to the many limbs of the »»

I was involved in a lively argument recently surrounding the need for economic growth in New Zealand. And, as the conversation proceeded, it became clear that those present were more than a bit sceptical as to whether faster growth was necessary. Phrases like “does it really matter if we’re 20th (or whatever) on the OECD ladder?”, “our lifestyle far outweighs monetary concept of standard of living” and »»

Well, well, well, its official - increasing growth is the priority! Reading from the Speech from the Throne (and, you can’t get more official than that), “government sees its most important task as building conditions for increasing New Zealand’s long term sustainable rate of economic growth”. Tell me if I’m reading too much into it - for it seems to have escaped many commentators - but, to me anyway, this »»

Let’s take stock of our collective performance over recent times and see if anything can be learnt. To do this seriously though, we should look at medium-term numbers rather than be concerned about the last couple of months/quarters. And rather than a single measure, we should use a collection of indicators like growth in output, employment, population, productivity and business numbers. The inter-censual period provides a »»

Well, its budget time. And behind the scenes there is an on-going ‘from the ground-up, fundamental’ review of the tax system. It is said that taxes and death are the two certainties of our existence. One could probably add calls for reductions in tax rates. In this context it is worth noting that despite the gloomy economic growth outlook being forwarded by many, there are unanimous forecasts of growing government »»

Immigration - good or evil? It seems almost part of the national character to now continually look at a glass as being half-empty instead of half-full. The impact of migration on the New Zealand economy is a case in point. Over the late-1990s a growing exodus of people led to many proposing Armageddon scenarios for the New Zealand economy as skills and capacity went north, west and east and everywhere in between. The past 18 »»

Well, we have been a miserable lot lately, haven’t we? Yes, the Super12 fiasco was hard to swallow, we’re not so sure about those cricket games we won last season and, now, our hockey team only gets invited to World Cup qualifiers to replace Zimbabwe - that powerhouse of world hockey. Meanwhile, a kangaroo is stalking our Koru - and who knows what’s going to happen to Montana. But is it really all that bad? Even »»