State of the New Zealand Economy (SONZE)

SONZE is an index of 42 key economic indicators that, when combined, provide a picture of the health of the New Zealand economy. The indicators are broken up into five groups. Each of these indicators are weighted equally and their trend is noted as either a positive or a negative giving a net position.

- General situation: real GDP growth, employment rate, labour force participation rate, net permanent migration, business confidence, own activity outlook, government OBERAC, and government net worth.

- External sector: milk powder, butter & cheese, meat, log and timber, international visitors, merchandise receipts, merchandise payments, current account balance/ balance of payment, and net international assets.

- Investment & building activity: real business investment, non-residential building consents, and house building consents.

- Domestic activity: retail sales (excluding motor vehicles), motor vehicle new registrations, guest nights.

- Financial and monetary conditions: consumer price inflation, producer inputs price inflation, NZX50 share prices, exchange rate (TWI), 90 day interest rate, 90 day interest rate margin with Australia.

SONZE stumbles in the dark

16 Apr 2008

The BERL SONZE basket of indicators is currently at a net balance of positive two (i.e. +2), comprising 26 indicators in positive territory and 24 in negative territory. This means the SONZE has recovered noticeably from its nosedive early this year and the minus two reported in our March BERL Forecasts. But the erratic nature of the many movements within the SONZE suggests underlying uncertainty. A turnaround in non-residential »»

SONZE grinds its way back up the slope

05 Mar 2008

The BERL SONZE basket of indicators finished February at a net balance of negative two (i.e. -2), comprising 24 indicators in positive territory and 26 in negative territory. This is a noticeable recovery from the negative ten (-10) recorded a month earlier. Within the SONZE, the industry, investment and building activity and domestic activity sub-groups have moved back into positive territory, while the general indicators sub-group »»

SONZE heads south for 4th consecutive month

04 Feb 2008

The BERL SONZE basket of indicators finished January at a net balance of negative ten (i.e. -10), comprising 20 indicators in positive territory and 30 in negative territory. This is a further deterioration from the negative eight (-8) recorded a month earlier and is the fourth consecutive month in which the SONZE has headed south. The SONZE has dived 26 points over the past four months – from plus 16 at the end of September. These »»

SONZE plummets into murky waters

08 Jan 2008

The BERL SONZE basket of indicators finished December 2007 at a net balance of negative eight (i.e. -8), comprising 21 indicators in positive territory and 29 in negative territory. This is down from the negative two (-2) recorded at the end of November, and is the lowest the SONZE has been since May 2006. The SONZE has dived 24 points over the last three months – from plus 16 at the end of September. These indicators »»

External and building sector woes lead to SONZE slide

13 Nov 2007

The BERL SONZE basket of indicators finished October at a net balance of positive eight (i.e. +8), comprising 29 indicators in positive territory and 21 in negative territory. The overall result is down from the plus 16 recorded the previous month, and the SoNZE is back to where it has been for three out of the last four months. This turnaround of eight in the SONZE balance was caused by four indicators turning from positive to negative during »»

SoNZE rebounds in September

04 Oct 2007

The BERL SoNZE basket of indicators finished September at a net balance of positive 16. This is a noticeable improvement from the previous two months when the SONZE registered plus 8. The SONZE has now been in positive territory for 12 consecutive months – averaging plus 14 over those months. Principal movers during September were in the industry, investment and building activity sub-group of the SONZE. In particular, the »»

SoNZE August 07

14 Sep 2007

SoNZE measures the change in 42 indicators of economic performance in New Zealand. Between July and September: Seven indicators have changed from bad to good: Business confidence: net % optimistic; Own activity outlook: net % optimistic; Merchandise import payments: $m; Merchandise import payments: % chge on prev year; Real business investment: 1996$m; Real »»

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