Money and Finance

The OCR – disappointingly more of the same

30 Jul 2009

The statement accompanying today’s OCR announcement was extremely disappointing. But not surprising. Yes, there is the very welcome acknowledgement that: “The level of the dollar in particular, is not helping the sustainability of the future growth, and brings with it additional economic risks." “The forecast recovery is based on a further easing in financial »»

Finance for firms will remain difficult

23 Jul 2009

Markets are still digesting the decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.5 percent. The first reaction was one of pleasant surprise to a market which had expected a cut and, as such, the Trade-Weighted Index (TWI) rose by 60 points to 60.1 and the 90-day Bank Bills rate rose 10 points to 2.82 percent. As we go to press the NZ$ is stronger at »»

Financial stability remains elusive

28 May 2009

In its just-released six-monthly Financial Stability Report, the Reserve Bank (RB) provides a comprehensive review of the New Zealand financial system and the problems besetting it from the global credit crisis. The picture emerging from the analysis confirms BERL’s concerns that the currently tight credit situation is unlikely to improve in the near future. In particular, it is likely »»

Monetary Situation - RBNZ response underwhelming

09 Apr 2009

The RBNZ’s 50 points reduction in its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.0% this month was at the lower end of expectations and in line with indications in its Review in January. It was not in line, however, with the indications in general that the credit crunch was worse than previously believed and not in line with the data contained in its own accompanying Monetary Policy Statement. Not »»

Reduction in OCR welcome, but...

24 Jul 2008

Yes, today’s announcement of a reduction in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 8.0 percent is indeed welcome news. As explained by the Reserve Bank (RB) Governor in his statement, the economy is now sufficiently weak for inflation pressures to be restrained »»

Time to rethink inflation targeting as the sole focus of the RB

03 Jul 2008

BERL's ongoing case against inflation targeting as the sole legislated mandate of the Reserve Bank (RB) is gaining traction. Trevor Mallard signalled today that there may be a change in the way that the RB fights inflation as noted in a Dominion Post article. The first chink we have seen in the policy targets agreement's titanium-plated armor. For a lay-persons overview of BERLs case, the Otago Daily Times has run an opinion »»

We beat inflation … yeah right! - Monetary policy impacts on NZ

02 May 2008

Marlborough Federated Farmers made a strong submission in 2007 to the Finance and Expenditure Select Committee inquiry into the operation of monetary policy. They are extremely concerned at its impact on the health and survival of the sheep and cattle industries. Kel Sanderson accepted the invitation of Chairman Geoff Evans to give a presentation to the Marlborough Federated Farmers AGM in Blenheim 2 May 2008. This was based on the »»

Monetary policy sits on the sidelines

16 Apr 2008

The current situation reinforces our story. Remember, the world is in the midst of a financial and credit crises, and signs that the next year or so will see a sustained period of sub-potential economic performance by New Zealand. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank is stuck with its mandate that the primary target is inflation and, first and foremost, inflation risks are to be mitigated. Thus, our monetary framework is rendered »»

Shares dive, but NZ interest rates continue to firm

19 Feb 2008

At the last review, on January 24, the RBNZ left its OCR unchanged at 8.25% in spite of a currently tight labour market, high returns for dairy products and likely fiscal expansion in the next budget. In a later speech, Dr Bollard drew attention to likely “shocks” of various kinds on the New Zealand inflationary situation. While noting the economy’s past ability to handle them, the fact that “shocks” »»

The future of monetary policy

17 Sep 2007

Yes, inflation is an evil. And, yes, monetary policy is an appropriate tool to combat inflation. But there are also costs incurred in securing a tight leash on inflation. The psychotic fear of inflation is clouding the need to pursue more important economic goals. Indeed, New Zealand’s attitudes to inflation control are actively hindering progress towards other goals. In our submission to the Inquiry into the »»

BERL urges inflation control to take a back seat to other goals
BERL Submission to Monetary Policy Review
RB holds Official Cash Rate at 8.25% in September '07
What will happen to the exchange rate next?
Comments on recent Reserve Bank interventions
Dr Nana Comments on Interest Rates - Video

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