Vital Statistics
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GDP
(average growth for year to Sep 09)
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-2.2%
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CPI
(Sep 09 incr on Sep 08) |
1.7%
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Current account balance
(year to Sep 09, % of GDP) |
-3.1%
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Unemployment
(Sep 09) |
6.5%
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Employment
(Sep 09 change on Sep 08) |
-1.8%
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Labour Market
05 Aug 2009
Net inward migration in the year ending June 2009 was 12,565 people. This is a 9,000 net increase since our last trough at 3,500 net inflow for the year to November 2008.
The net increase has been growing strongly since January-February this year and the seasonality pattern indicates that it will continue growing for at least the next five or six months. We expect the net inflow to be about »»
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13 Jul 2009
There continue to be no massive shocks hitting the New Zealand labour market. The actual state of the labour market and the economy has been obscured by many commentators’ obsession with the unemployment indicator, rather than employment indicators.
There has been a steady decline in employment growth since 2005, and there are now some signs that this decline is bottoming out.
Total »»
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25 May 2009
The actual state of the labour market and the economy has been obscured by many commentators’ obsession with the U-word – unemployment.
When the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) for the March 2009 quarter was published, many commentators trumpeted the increase in unemployment to 5 percent of the labour force. Some went so far as to opine that it was not as high as expected, and »»
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28 Apr 2009
The net inflow of long-term migrants is on the increase again. In the 12 months to February 2009 the net inflow was 6,160, a welcome increase from the trough in the latest cycle of 3,570 in the 12 months to November 2008.
The interesting aspect of this turnaround is that it has been quite rapid – a little like the 2001-02 increase. Also like 2001-02 it is being driven mostly by reduction »»
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06 Apr 2009
We have been diligently investigating all the data we can locate relevant to the prospects for employment in New Zealand. Despite the negative sentiment coming through we cannot find the widely expected black hole in New Zealand employment.
We have been saying for over a year that the employment market is easing, but that employment is resilient and not ‘falling out of bed’. There »»
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11 Feb 2009
The media and their financial ‘economist-commentators’ become so hyped up with their expectations of doom, that they prefer to overlook the facts as they come out. The facts coming through from the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) for the December quarter 2008 are that the state of the economy as measured by the HLFS has changed little in the last twelve months.
Employment is »»
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25 Aug 2008
The figures for migration in July 2008 released on Thursday confirm that the firming of the net migration inflow since February has continued.
The annual net inflow was 4,700 permanent and long-term migrants in the year to June 2008, and this has increased to 5,200 for year to July 2008.
The strong and steady net inflow of over 17,000 people from Europe, America and southern Africa had another »»
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08 Aug 2008
This headline was the assessment we made of the situation in May-June 2008 and that is exactly what was happening. The Household Labour Force Survey figures for the June Quarter 2008 registered an increase by 15,000 in the number employed compared with June 2007.
This contrasts with a measured decline by 5,000 in the year to March 2008 and an increase by 54,000 in the year to December 2007. As we suspected there seems to have »»
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16 Apr 2008
Net inward migration for the year ending February was a positive 4,643 compared with a net annual inflow of 13,151 a year earlier. If it keeps drifting down at this rate we will have a net annual outflow by about September 2008.
The deterioration by 8,500 since February 2007 was caused by a meagre increase by 800 in arrivals and, needless to say, an increase in departures by 9,300. Of the 78,650 departures in the year to February »»
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19 Feb 2008
As noted, the labour market continues to send signals of on-going growth. Employment as measured by the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) increased 53,000 during calendar 2007, having grown at a rate of around 30,000 a year through 2006 and most of 2007. It now seems fairly clear that the Reserve Bank and Treasury forecasts of significantly lower, if not zero, employment growth are not going to eventuate during this cycle.
The »»
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03 Oct 2007
New Zealanders are at their most confident about their employment situation, which bodes well for continued positive spending growth. The Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index (ECI) came in at 135.9 in the September quarter 2007, the highest reading since the series began in June 2004. An index above 100 indicates more optimists than pessimists.
The ECI was up 7.5 points in the September quarter 2007. »»
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17 Sep 2007
There are some noticeable cracks appearing in the previously robust employment growth story. Job numbers in June 2007 – as measured by the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) – were 32,000, or 1.5%, up on a year ago. This figure, however, masks a sizable shift in composition. In particular, this net expansion is now concentrated in increased part-time positions, with few extra full-time positions recorded. »»
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22 Aug 2007
We usually lead into our labour market forecasts with an assessment of the labour demand and employment situation. However, the recent change of most significance is sentiment on the migration front.
We had been confidently forecasting that the overall net inflow would plateau-out at a net inflow of 15,000 to 20,000 going forward. Note that the net inflow, having reached a trough at 6,000 in the year to October 2005, had climbed »»
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Labour force participation rates to begin to edge downThe unemployment rate remains lowDr Nana Comments on Wages - Video
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