Of course, the spectre of slowing global growth and on-going financial market turmoil haunts the current economic climate.  And it would be easy to overplay the gloomy card.  For example, US GDP in the December quarter rose 0.2%, taking it to 2.5% above year-earlier levels.  Thus, US GDP averaged 2.2% growth over the 2007 calendar year.  Some have concluded a ‘recession’ is already underway.  Perhaps, but negative GDP growth has yet to be recorded.  Admittedly though, the first six months of 2008 are likely to see numbers that will run the recession argument close.

But remember the US is not the world.  And for New Zealand’s concerns the fortunes of the Asia-Pacific hemisphere are just as, if not more, important.  In this context, we note the latest set of Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts sees GDP in this region expanding by 4.9% in calendar 2008 and 5.0% in 2009.  Within this region, China is expected to continue double-digit growth this year (10.3%); India is expected to expand by 7.9%; Australia by 3.5%; South Korea by 4.6%; Indonesia 6.1%; and, despite having its GDP projections “slashed”, Singapore is still forecast to experience a 5.6% expansion.

Yes, 2008 is undoubtedly going to be tougher than 2007.  But, it helps no one if we ignore the fact that many parts of the global economy remain sound and the source of continued economic expansion.