As noted, the labour market continues to send signals of on-going growth. Employment as measured by the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) increased 53,000 during calendar 2007, having grown at a rate of around 30,000 a year through 2006 and most of 2007.  It now seems fairly clear that the Reserve Bank and Treasury forecasts of significantly lower, if not zero, employment growth are not going to eventuate during this cycle.

The recent strengthening in employment growth is quite widespread, with increases across parts of agriculture; manufacturing; tourism-driven hospitality; retail and transport; and many of the services.  Increases are now again showing through in business services, social services, sports, recreation, and personal services.

Growth has also occurred across most occupation groups.  Managers and retail/service workers both increased by over 20,000; professional and clericals by 12-15,000; and trades occupations by just 4,000.  It could well be that availability, or supply, is the limiting factor causing the slowdown in the trades from the 15,000 increases recorded earlier.  It may also partly reflect the reduced net inward migration.  Some of the increase in the above occupations is made up by a reduction and/or upskilling by 10,000 in the number of labourers/cleaners employed.

In general there is a fairly robust story continuing to emanate from the labour market, with the labour force participation rate up to 69.1%, and unemployed at 3.2% - both the most favourable numbers since the HLFS started in 1986. Participation by women continues to increase, and quizzically was singled out by one media interpretation as a potential cause of inflation.  That is drawing a very long bow as an excuse for increasing interest rates.  Surely increasing the supply of goods and services by employing more people should reduce prices!!  Or, are they suggesting that women with jobs spend more than they earn?  Shame on that journalist.