The latest retail data released by Statistics New Zealand show a positive picture for the year as a whole, but a mixed picture for growth in the latest few months.

Three quarters of the core retail sales industries increased their sales between October and November.  Sales in all four motor vehicle industries expanded.  Automotive fuel sales climbed by 5.4 percent over the last month, and compared to December a year ago this industry’s sales were almost one quarter higher.  Motor vehicle sales climbed swiftly in the last month by 8.8 percent, although this came on the back of a several soft months.

Focusing on the three monthly changes, the big movers were automotive fuel retailing (10.4 percent), liquor retailing (3.7 percent) and bars and clubs (2.9 percent).  On the down side were personal and household goods hiring (-7.9 percent), footwear retailing (-3.7 percent) and recreational goods retailing (-2.5 percent).  On the whole, retail sales were a decent 1.5 percent higher in the latest three months compared to June to August period.

Electronic card transaction show spending of almost $53.4 billion on credit, debit and EFTPOS cards during calendar 2007.  This level was 8.9 percent higher than a year ago.  Spending was matched by a 9.4 percent rise in the number of transactions, to 965 million transactions, so the average transaction value (of about $55) was fairly steady.

While transactions in November were solid, matching the retail sales figures, the equivalent December 2007 figures indicate weaker spending.  After adjusting for seasonal fluctuations, the total value of retail sales charged to electronic cards was static at just over $3.66bn.  Core retail sales, by the measure, grew by 0.4% in the December month.  This was below the average monthly growth of 0.6% seen over the last year.

Given how much monthly data tend to fluctuate, it does not pay to get too hung up on what one month’s data.  The next month could balance it out rather than be the start of a trend.  Which way retail sales will turn depend on the balance of pressures on households from high interest rates and a softening housing market versus high employment and the flow on effects of strengthening exports.