So, what will Te Tari Tatou be measuring in the New Zealand of the 2030s? As an economist I’d suggest two critical constraints facing the New Zealand economy over the coming quarter century – people and energy. Thus, I would signal two key productivity or efficiency measures – GDP per hours worked and GDP per GWh of energy generated. But we measure these already … so is there anything more?

The people of New Zealand, we are told, will be older (and, hopefully, wiser?) and more ethnically diverse. Whether that diversity points in the Asian and/or Pacific dimension, is unclear from today’s perspective. No doubt growing difficulties in defining ethnicities 30 years hence may make the statisticians work even harder in this regard.

But I pick the Census of 2031 will be focussing on health ever moreso as heightening health concerns become entangled with climate and environment issues. With climate change interacting with air quality concerns, New Zealand’s respiratory illness rates could well be eating up a greater and greater share of the national cake than ever before. No doubt international comparisons will show us up trailing Australia in some manner or means. Thus, questions on individual are eating and exercise habits will become more comprehensive and detailed as efforts to improve prevention programmes and rein in health spending intensify.

Indeed, don’t be surprised if the prevention (including health insurance) industry becomes a surging growth area. While the traditional fitness centres will remain the backbone of the industry the number of workplaces with comprehensive fitness and medical assessment centres could soar. Managers and employers will need to respond to growing concern surrounding medical and more general well-being status. While coping with stress may be central to some concerns, longer-term concerns in the intensely competitive labour market will result in many more ancillary add-ons to the employment package. Training and development time, along with sabbaticals and more longer breaks will become standard features as firms cope with a labour force juggling commitments to younger children and to older parents, as well as pursuing their own healthy but full lifestyles.

So the measure may not be number of hours (or days) worked per year, but perhaps a comprehensive measure of leisure time available – or is that “leisure time affordable”?

Energy wise, New Zealand critically needs quick decisions on energy generation capacity. Maui Gas will be well and truly relegated to the history books by 2030. My pick would be that today’s focus on energy conservation could see a subtle change to one on energy sustainability and, hence, affordability.

With real GDP per GWh generated rising significantly over the past decade, the extent of further energy efficiency gains may well be limited. Thereafter, the next quarter century may well measure the contribution of new capacity in enhancing the national conservation estate. This of course, presupposes the Resource Management Act is amended to allow for projects that facilitate a Net Environment Gain, in contrast to the existing requirement to mitigate environmental loss. If so, projects that contribute to sustainable GDP growth and add wealth to the nation can then be actioned in order to enable such enhancement of the national estate.

The number of national conservation hectares under privately-funded and successful management schemes would be a welcome new indicator of prosperity. The existing measure – the number of Kiwi chick lost to stoats and possums – just seems too depressing to continue into the 21st century.