Vital Statistics
30 May 2007
A New Economic Order
Dr Ganesh Nana
The first step required is an immediate cut in interest rates. But this needs to go hand in hand with the establishment of a new economic order. An order that puts at the front and centre of all economic discussions - diagnoses, prognoses and remedies - the plight of exports and exporting businesses. For it is not only actions that count, but expectations, perceptions and attitudes are also required to change. In essence, New Zealand’s economic policy framework was hijacked a long time ago by the inflation police. Yes, there has been intermittent tinkering involving semantics and target ranges. But the attitude remains that inflation is public enemy number one and needs to be halted at all costs. From this belief flows expectations that interest rates are likely to be raised at any sign of inflation. And such expectations underpin an exchange rate higher than would otherwise be warranted. Yes, the exchange rate declines every now and then. But the expectation that it will inevitably rebound and overshoot on the high side just makes matters worse. The current policy framework provides no sign of a stable economic environment within which NZ enterprise can settle, plan and establish sustainable export businesses. Current numbers are illustrative of how inflation concerns incessantly override other economic issues. New Zealand’s CPI inflation rate is currently 2.5%, while it is 2.4% in Australia. Previous March years recorded 3.4%, 2.7% and 1.6% rates of inflation for NZ. Australia’s numbers are 3.0%, 2.4% and2.0%. Further, the consensus of 12 forecasters expects NZ CPI inflation over this calendar year to be 2.2%, rising to 2.4% in 2008. The highest expectation is 2.8% for this year and 3.1% next year. The RBNZ itself expects 1.7% and 2.5%. The Aussies are expecting 2.6% for both years. There is little evidence we are out of synch with others around us. Yet we continue to act as if inflation is bad, is about to get worse, and a state of heightened inflation alert is warranted. And so, in the wake of the F&P announcement of job losses as activities are shifted abroad, I find the intensity of the recent collective economic navel introspection curious. Cynical is not a word I would use to describe my responses - rather an overwhelming sense of déjà vu. The country has been grappling with how to retain, improve and benefit from manufacturing (and other) exporters for many a decade now. There was the much-protected and, now much-maligned, economy of the 1950s, 60s and 70s. And the turn of the century saw the call for a ‘knowledge economy’. Now we are engaged in a search for some alternative ‘monetary policy instruments’. The need to establish a stable economic environment within which NZ businesses can operate and compete on a global footing seems, at best, a footnote. That New Zealand can not cope with third-world low-cost labour competitors is clear. However, the alternative is not so clear. Skirting around this question doesn’t help, as it needs to be faced head-on. Furthermore, relegating the plight of exports to second (or even lower) place behind inflation concerns reinforces expectations that a stable long-term business climate is unlikely to eventuate. So, perhaps, now (if not earlier) would be a good time for export commandos to rescue New Zealand's economic policy framework from the inflation police. An unambiguous statement of the policy priority would be a start: that is, the export sector is first; everything else can wait in the queue. And no, this is not being ‘soft on inflation’. Because inflation, whenever it is out of line with that of our main trading partners, should be very much a target for an export-focused policy framework. But the health of the export sector should not be sacrificed in the pursuit of other unrelated targets. Housing market problems or savings shortcomings (whatever they be) are not excuses to reek untold damage (again) to the long-term economic base of the country. Economic management (and, dare I say, leadership) needs to encompass the primacy of the export sector in the furthering nation’s well-being. And it must recognise that inflation concerns need to become subservient to export sector needs.
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