Saturday, February 04, 2012
|
30 Nov 2007
US & Australia continue to grow
David Norman
Growth in New Zealand’s two most important trading partners, the US and Australia, is holding up despite global credit concerns. The sharp slowdown in the US housing market has not hampered job growth in the US, while the lack of rain in Australia has not stopped soaring GDP growth across the ditch.
Indeed, the Dow Jones and the Australian All Ordinaries recently posted all-time highs. It is hard to believe that this is just two months after markets had an attack of the jitters in mid-August.
Previous reports of the loss of 4,000 jobs in the US in August have turned out to be erroneous. Revised figures indicate that in fact 89,000 jobs were added during this period, almost as many as the 93,000 in July. September job growth is even better, up 100,000. Unemployment is flat at 4.7%, with growth in health care, food services, and professional and technical services, and declines in manufacturing and construction.
Meanwhile average US GDP growth in the June 2007 year was 2.1%, well down on the 3.2% recorded in the June 2006 year, but certainly not abysmal. Driving current growth is the exports component, up 7.8% over the June 2006 year. Exports were up across all six major goods categories, and in every service category except transfers under US military sales contracts. Domestic private consumption increased 3.0% on the June 2006 year, while investment spending was down 3.2% after a 0.3% fall in the March 2007 year, a somewhat concerning trend.
Australia’s GDP in the June 2007 quarter was 4.3% above year-earlier levels, taking average growth for the year to June to 3.4%. Driving this expansion has been real non-residential investment spending, which grew by an average 6.4% in the year to June 2007. Of particular interest to New Zealand exporters, Australian imports also continued to grow as part of this expansion. The year to June saw imports up by an average 9.5%.
Looking at the industries, increases were experienced across the board, with the exception of agriculture. Agriculture GDP for the June 2007 year was over 19% below that of the previous year, with non-farm GDP up 4%.
And this month’s Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts publication expects little slow down in the growth of our main trading partners. China’s growth is expected to remain in double-digits in calendar 2008, while South East Asia is forecast to grow by 5.9% following a 6% expansion in 2007. Consensus Forecasts 3.7% growth for Australia in 2008, and North America is expected to recover from 2% this year to 2.4% next year. Meanwhile, Western Europe continues to be the growth laggard, slipping further from 2.7% this year to 2.2% in 2008.
Text Size :
|
berl.co.nzBusiness and Economic Research Ltd 2007 Disclaimer: |
 |