Wednesday, February 08, 2012

Vital Statistics



11 Oct 2007
Updated US employment growth numbers show increase not decrease.
It turns out the news that the US economy lost 4,000 jobs in August was no news at all. Revised figures indicate that in fact 89,000 jobs were added during the period, almost as many as the 93,000 in July. September job growth is even better, up 100,000. Unemployment is flat at 4.7%, with growth in health care, food services, and professional and technical services, and declines in manufacturing and construction.
 
New Zealand’s second-largest trading partner is holding up despite the global credit crunch, and the sharp slowdown in the US housing market.

Indeed, the Dow Jones is hovering around an all-time high. It is hard to believe that this is just two months after markets plunged on risky lending jitters in late July and early August.

At its September meeting, the Fed delivered the expected cut in rates, but by 50 basis points, more than many analysts expected. It now has lower expectations on inflation for the year. No doubt sky-high oil prices are still of some concern, as the Fed does believe that “some inflation risks remain”.

The Fed has also identified the increased uncertainty around forecasting economic growth with the recent financial market fluctuations as an ongoing issue they will be watching.

Meanwhile average GDP growth in the June 2007 year was 2.1% in the US, well down on the 3.2% recorded in the June 2006 year, but certainly not abysmal. Driving growth at the moment is the exports component, up 7.8% over the June 2006 year. Exports were up across all six major goods categories, and in every service category except transfers under US military sales contracts. Domestic private consumption increased 3.0% on the June 2006 year, while investment spending is down 3.2% after a 0.3% fall in the March 2007 year, a somewhat concerning trend.

The UCLA Anderson Forecast expects US growth to fall to 1.0% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2007 and first quarter of 2008, terming the slowdown a, dare we even mention the phrase, “near recession experience”.




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