Client: Education New Zealand

Date: August 2007

Author(s): Jiani Wu; Dr Ganesh Nana

This project is the second stage of the export education forecasting project, following an investigation of currently available data in Stage One. Key findings of Stage One were summarised in the report - "Scoping Study of Industry Statistics (forecasting)" (BERL #4529). The research in Stage One suggested dividing the education export industry into four segments; and focusing on the subset of countries in each segment that exhibited patterns sufficiently ‘settled’ for estimation.

Four projection models were built for four market segments (Schools, Public Tertiary, ELS, and Other PTEs) separately.  Explanatory variables included in the models were exchange rate, cost of living and tuition fees, weighted GDP per capita of source countries, and immigration policies.  The focus of these models is on medium to longer-term trends, as opposed to short-term fluctuations.

BERL#4596