Friday, September 10, 2010
Vital Statistics
23 Aug 2007
Export prices of apples rose significantly towards the end of the marketing of the 2006 crop
Dr Robin Johnson
Export prices of apples rose significantly towards the end of the marketing of the 2006 crop according to ANZ. But the drop in unit price in year ended June 2006 was 9%. For 2006/07 we forecast a recovery of around 2%. As at March 2007, unit prices were only 1.6% higher than those a year earlier (in spite of ANZ indicator trends).
MAF says international prices were low for most of 2005/06 because of oversupply of product, and the low prices were exacerbated by high NZ exchange rates. They forecast market prices to be relatively stable in the current season, but a depreciating NZ$ will lift export revenue.
PipFruit New Zealand report that the 2007 crop is of superb quality with the highest brix and best texture for some years. Major customers have been prepared to pay a considerable premium over other Southern hemisphere suppliers. Exporters have reported excellent quality as Royal Gala starts to arrive in volume in the key European market. Initial pricing of Royal Gala in Europe and the USA is similar to last year with early variety Cox’s Orange being slightly ahead. Asian markets have seen good prices and demand for the Pacific series of apples. Suspension from the Taiwanese market has caused a hiccup for the popular Fuji variety. Packers have been delaying Fuji packing and the blockage has now been cleared.
Pipfruit NZ says that volumes exported to date are very similar to the previous two years. The year to April saw 122,000 tonnes shipped, compared to 129,000 tonnes in the previous year. Royal Gala is down on pre-season estimates with 66% shipped to date compared to 75% the previous period. They forecast that the total crop for the 2006/07 season will be 299,000 tonnes, up 11% (September year).
For the year ended June 2007 we forecast a 5% higher export volume at slightly higher prices (+2%) given the trends in ANZ commodity prices. Similar recovery in production and export volumes is likely in the following years.
Global kiwifruit sales lifted 15% to $1.14bn in the 2006 season say Zespri, but could have been higher if substandard fruit had not been rejected at wharf at a cost of $50m. Offshore volumes had increased tenfold in the last three seasons and now amounted to 6m trays (21,600 tonnes). These supplemented out-of-season marketing under Zespri’s banner and are stated to be essential to Zespri’s future growth. Overseas suppliers grow gold kiwifruit under licence mainly in Italy with smaller volumes in France, Chile, the USA, Japan and Korea. Green kiwis are being grown in Italy, Chile and France.
At the beginning of the current export year, Zespri was predicting an extra 10m trays (36,000 tonnes). Fruit quality was `exceeding expectations’ with good taste characteristics. Marketing teams in Asia and Europe were waiting for product to arrive at that stage.
Zespri sources state that, including loyalty payments, the average payout was $8.07 per tray up from $6.82 the previous season. The average orchard gate return was up 10% to $31,580 per hectare compared to the previous year’s $28,687.
In the next season to March 2007, exports were 15% ahead of the previous March year ($758.7m) at similar volumes (310,000 tonnes). So far average prices on a March year basis were up 16.5%. These figures are a strong guide to the June export year as marketing mainly falls in the following export year.
We are forecasting higher export volumes for 2006/07 as indicated by Zespri including a lower rate of rejected fruit (+10%). Growth of exports may be slow into 2007/08. Higher prices are assumed for the 2006 crop some of which will carry through to the 2007/08 export year.
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