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22 Aug 2007
Exports driving HK economy - BERL Forecasts June 2007
Jiani Wu
Hong Kong recorded real GDP growth of 5.6% in the first quarter of 2007, compared to last year. This figure is forecast to drop slightly to 5.3% in the financial year 2007 and then further to 5.1% in the financial year 2008, according to Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts (May, 2007).
Exports play a significant role in driving Hong Kong’s economy. Being one of the top ten exporters in the world, merchandise exports is the main driver of the growth of this economy. Merchandise exports enjoyed a significant increase of 8.2% (in real terms) in the first quarter.
Growth in the US, Japan and mainland China largely affect Hong Kong’s economic performance due to the extensive trade/economic connections. And the indicators emanating from China, Japan and even the US, suggest that Hong Kong will perform well.
Hong Kong’s unemployment rate is at an historic (over the last 8 ½ years) low at 4.3%. Almost 300,000 net additional jobs have been created since 2003. As a result, labour income/household income has grown significantly.
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