Client: Martin Jenkins Associates

Date: October 2006

Author(s): Ganesh Nana, Jason Leung-Wai

The project, on sub-contract, was  to provide a model and forecasts for the Department of Building and Housing.

This report summarises the development and construction of a model designed to forecast key components of tenancy volume indicators. In particular, four indicators were modelled and forecast: the number of bond lodgements, the number of bond refunds, the number of tenancy advice calls received, and the number of bond advice calls received.

The model developed consisted of four equations estimated using data from the 1996 to 2006 period. The equations operated on a quarterly (i.e. three months) basis. Consequently, forecasts were generated from these equations for three month totals for each of these four indicators.

BERL#4514