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01 Nov 2005
Seasonal Labour Forecasting Tool
Client: Horticulture and Viticulture Seasonal Working Group Date: November 2005 Author(s): Dr Ganesh Nana; Dr Nicola Chandler; Kel Sanderson
The purpose of this report is to provide a forecasting tool for seasonal labour requirements for New Zealand. The spreadsheets in the tool are currently populated for the three crops of pipfruit, kiwifruit and wine grapes. The three regions which have been concentrated on are the Hawke’s Bay, Nelson/Marlborough and the Bay of Plenty. For each crop there are three areas of data in the spreadsheets: production, seasonal labour productivity and seasonal labour demand as determined by output and task. The model then calculates seasonal labour demand for the crops selected. The supply of seasonal labour was also modelled. Our approach has been to build on the many studies already undertaken and, further, to consolidate the available information and data into a workable modelling framework. While data and information remains piecemeal, we do not believe that this has stood in our way. More comprehensive data as well as richer and more robust relationships can, when available, be readily incorporated within the modelling tool that has been developed. BERL# 4421
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