Client: Central Otago Health Services Limited

Date: March 2005

Author(s): Kel Sanderson; Mathew Arcus

Central Otago Health Srvices Limited (COHSL) operates the Dunstan Hospital, and is re-building it. COHSL wished to have a strategy that reflected the present and likely future changes in the population in its catchment, and therefore wanted a projection of likely population changes to 2021. BERL undertook the commission to use a range of approaches to assess the present population in the COHSL catchment, and to project this population to 2021.

The report first analyses trends from the three Censi 1991, 1996 and 2001. It then explores a number of recent changes in factors related to population. These factors include aspects of the economy; construction and dwellings; health services usage; and seasonality. Finally this recent information is used as a base for a population projection to 2021.

BERL#4372