The recovery of the Auckland economy is by no means a foregone conclusion.

That’s the message from Business and Economic Research Limited (BERL) and the AUT Institute of Public Policy’s (IPP) latest economic forecast for Auckland.

The second report in the quarterly series was launched today and forecast some improvements in various sectors but continued slow growth or the status quo in others.

In summary BERL forecasts for Auckland:

• a marginally brighter picture for manufacturing exports, but a difficult year for exporters selling to the US and European markets 
• modest (at best) employment growth 
• another ‘stand still’ year for the retail sector 
• considerable growth in house building activity but overall only “catching up” to lost activity 
• net migration gains in the short term, but easing over the medium to longer term as Aucklanders look to greener pastures across the ditch.

BERL Chief Economist Dr Ganesh Nana says there are “few signs that the Auckland economy is leading the nation into recovery. On the contrary, the picture for Auckland seems to follow that of nation.

And looking beyond the short term, with New Zealand’s export revenues increasingly concentrated in primary commodities and associated processing, the question of the role of the Super City within such an economy needs to be urgently addressed.

Auckland could continue as a property and consumer-oriented economy operating as a transport hub for New Zealand. Or, it could look to truly lead by providing that point of difference for NZ Inc to leverage. Such a transformation has proved elusive for some time, and there is little sign that we are any closer to finding that export and wealth-generating leader for the nation.”

A copy of the report is available here.